Financial blog of Louise Cooper
Latest Posts
Herding behaviour in Financial Markets
The Nikkei’s 7.3% fall in one day is an example of the herding behaviour seen in financial markets. All players stampeded for the exit at the same time. But why? There are good reasons: Most fund managers are compensated for relative performance. Investors are influenced by other’s decisions fearing they know something they don’t. And [...]
Green Shoots Unfurling into Leaves.
UK Economy on path to recovery… Predicting the inflection point in an economy is always highly difficult. But there are plenty of signs that the UK is now on an upward path: Mervyn King’s new found optimism. Reinhart and Rogoff’s analysis of past financial crises suggests that in a global crisis, it takes on average [...]
Tui Results in Confidence..
TUI - Consumers still spending on summer holidays. Tui’s results also look better than market forecasts, with the losses over winter £43mn less than last year. The dividend is up 10% and underlying profit growth of 10% was at the top end of the range of expectations of 7-10% growth. After the appalling summer weather of 2012 and the [...]
BT- Turning around.
After four years of declining revenue, is this the turning point for BT? 4Q underlying sales ex transit revenue was actually flat whilst the year was down 3%. Has the revenue decline come to an end? Fixed line telephony is a dying business and mobile is maturing rapidly. Strategically a company in this position should [...]
Trouble at Co-Op Bank.
The Bank of England warned last November that British Banks and Building Societies were under-capitalised by at least £25bn and needed a larger cushion to absorb potential losses. At the time it was largely ignored, particularly by the effervescent stock market. More recent calls from Mervyn King and the yet to be governor Mark Carney [...]
A New Trading Rule?
A new Rule? The Gods of this crisis have been the Central Bankers, stepping in with their trillions of acronym laden largesse. But I hypothesise that they are losing their power, even if markets are still scared into submission. The politicians lost their economic influence some time ago, maybe now it is the turn of [...]
Economics is philosphy not science…
“Economics has been moved to the maths department but belongs in philosophy”. For maths, equations have to be proven – there is a solution, a final answer. π doesn’t change – it is calculated by dividing the circumference of a circle by the diameter and equals 3.1415 etc, a precise if infinite number. The Pythagoras [...]
The Peculiarities of Gold…
Spandau Ballet Goldhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ntG50eXbBtc Gold – Investment or Gambling? After a volatile week, its time to re-evaluate the shiny stuff. Is it a valuable investment with a proper place in any portfolio? Or is it the equivalent of putting your money on black? Whatever your opinion, gold provokes strong sentiments. As an investment, gold has some [...]
Europe needs a TARP and a Hank..
This post is clearly not going to win me friends as it demands a massive injection of government or taxpayer’s money into Europe’s banks (I can feel the vitriol being poured on me already). However I strongly believe it is the right thing to do economically as America’s TARP demonstrates. Most people are not aware that [...]
Inflation drives investors into risky arms…
To get us in a sombre mood for inflation’s damaging consequences to personal wealth, I have turned to country music. Ronnie Dunn’s Cost of Livin’ Following yesterday’s blog that inflation is coming, the next question is how to protect yourself from its wealth destroying properties. Inflation plus nailed-down-to-the-floor interest rates leaves few options for using money as a [...]