UK Economy on path to recovery… Predicting the inflection point in an economy is always highly difficult. But there are plenty of signs that the UK is now on an upward path: Mervyn King’s new found optimism. Reinhart and Rogoff’s analysis of past financial crises suggests that in a global crisis, it takes on average [...]
TUI - Consumers still spending on summer holidays. Tui’s results also look better than market forecasts, with the losses over winter £43mn less than last year. The dividend is up 10% and underlying profit growth of 10% was at the top end of the range of expectations of 7-10% growth. After the appalling summer weather of 2012 and the [...]
After four years of declining revenue, is this the turning point for BT? 4Q underlying sales ex transit revenue was actually flat whilst the year was down 3%. Has the revenue decline come to an end? Fixed line telephony is a dying business and mobile is maturing rapidly. Strategically a company in this position should [...]
The Bank of England warned last November that British Banks and Building Societies were under-capitalised by at least £25bn and needed a larger cushion to absorb potential losses. At the time it was largely ignored, particularly by the effervescent stock market. More recent calls from Mervyn King and the yet to be governor Mark Carney [...]
A new Rule? The Gods of this crisis have been the Central Bankers, stepping in with their trillions of acronym laden largesse. But I hypothesise that they are losing their power, even if markets are still scared into submission. The politicians lost their economic influence some time ago, maybe now it is the turn of [...]