Latest Posts

Risk for UK assets?

Could this be the worse result for RUK financial assets in the long term? Beware of the euphoric rally from a Yes vote – it is deeply problematic for the UK.  Most importantly Alex Salmond’s economic plans will never be shown to be the tosh they truly are.  Like most politicians who wants voter support, he has tried to bribe [...]

Quick look pre market open on Scotland vote..

As I wrote this the results has gone from being neck to neck to the Nos an outright win. But Sterling has been rallying since yesterday afternoon.  It has already moved from 1.62 against the dollar Thursday morning to 1.65 currently.  This is a sharp move and sterling volatility has shot up to levels not [...]


So 255 banks have been given a total of E82.6bn for 4yrs from the ECB at an interest cost of just 0.15%.  This is way below what markets had forecast banks would ask for.  E130-150bn was the range. Draghi is trying to push on a piece of strong.  The TLTRO was his way to force banks to lend [...]


A brilliant suggestion from one of my Twitter followers (@paulalexander26) as to what any new Scottish bonds should be called. I was away at a wedding early this week and so haven’t sent out my Times column: It looks as the City’s inability to price political risk.  That Salmond is not easily put into a [...]

Brave Heart?

Is Alex Salmond styling himself as the modern day William Wallace, fighting for Scottish freedom?  If he is, there is form for such behaviour.  I am currently reading Iain Martin’s book “Making it happen. Fred Goodwin, RBS and the men who blew up the British economy”.  In it (p78) is the fascinating fact that Fred Goodwin ”hung a replica long sword [...]

A contrarian view on wages and inflation.

Mark Carney is speaking at the TUC tomorrow principally on wages and rates. My Times column today ( offers a contrarian view of wages growth and inflation. Unemployment has already fallen from 8.4% in January 2012 to 6.4%. But wages have yet to respond to labour market tightening.  The latest quarterly figures show  pay, excluding bonuses, up by [...]

Draghi’s surprise rate cut

Draghi surprised the markets with a 10bp rate cut today to all three main rates (the main refinancing rate down 10bps to 0.05%, marginal lending rate down 10bps to 0.30% and deposit facility date also down 10bps to -0.20%). The Euro fell against both the dollar and Sterling with one pound now buying 1.26 Euros up from 1.25 and one dollar [...]

Times’ columns

here are webpages for my revent Times columns – sorry not to have added them earlier.  was trying to have some of the summer off. On the supposed independence of think tanks:   The lack of a long term vision in the city (unlike the National Trust) which is damaging our prospects:   [...]

I’m backing Bolland – Do I need a lie down?

I’m backing Bolland.. (Do I need a lie down?) Quite clearly this was a retailer in the dark ages, following as Bolland put it “20 years of underinvestment”..  It had 110 warehouse centres just for General Merchandise. Bolland has closed down some but still has 50 warehouses. Just for comparison Amazon has 8 “fulfilment centres” [...]

Can the City be Socially Useful?

Last night I took part in a debate in the City of London Festival looking at whether the City could be Socially Useful.  The majority of the audience were relatively pro the City, albeit with misgivings.  This was a welcome change from my experience at the Manchester Arts Festival last year where the audience was exceedingly left wing and loathed anything Bank [...]